Predicting the Future and Scientific Inquiry

The pursuit of knowledge and understanding lies at the heart of scientific inquiry. Scientists strive to uncover the mysteries of the natural world, unravel past events, and make sense of the present. However, what sets science apart is its unique capacity to venture into the unknown — the future.

The unique quality of the future, being unknown and yet to unfold, sets it apart from the present and the past, which are selectively accessible to some based on available evidence and historical records.

To correct a bunch of poorly reasoned but widely circulated claims “what science is”, this blog post makes the simple point that predicting the future serves an ultimate arbiter in determining whether academic output qualifies as science, and that the social role of science is to protect us from costly negative surprises as the future unfolds.

Science encompasses the extraction of causal mechanisms from limited observations — inevitably limited to the observable world, read: the present and the past — and the determination which of them have sufficient generality to comprise regularities that can be applied to the yet-unobserved world, which inevitably includes the future.

Only when scientific research can consistently offer accurate predictions based on well-formulated hypotheses about future discoveries, it fulfills its social role of advancing knowledge and reducing the occurrence of costly negative surprises. This predictive power is a hallmark of successful scientific endeavors and serves as a critical criterion for distinguishing true science from mere self-perpetuating academic exercises.

Photo by Drew Beamer.

The Uniqueness of the Future

The future stands apart from the present and the past in one crucial aspect — it is equally unknown to everyone. While parts of the present and the past may be selectively accessible through evidence and historical records, the future remains shrouded in uncertainty. This inherent unknown nature of the future makes making statements about it inherently predictive.

It is this predictive aspect that allows us to differentiate scientific inquiry from mere retrospective analyses of the past or descriptions of the present, also known as “the art of predicting the past”. The scientific method gives us a tool to make testable and verifiable predictions about the future, distinguishing it as a reliable and rigorous method of inquiry.

The Role of Prediction in Scientific Inquiry

Prediction is a defining characteristic of scientific inquiry. By formulating testable hypotheses and constructing models, science ventures into the realm of the unknown, seeking to understand the consequences of natural phenomena and human actions yet to unfold. The ability to make accurate predictions about the future events and outcomes provides a yardstick to gauge the scientific nature of academic output.

The Role of Replicability in Scientific Inquiry

The ability to replicate research findings through independent verification is the bedrock of scientific reliability and credibility. When scientific studies can be reproduced by different researchers using the same methods and data, it strengthens the validity of the predictions made and enhances confidence in the conclusions drawn.

Replicability fosters transparency and ensures that scientific knowledge is built on a solid foundation of consistent evidence. In the pursuit of predicting future events and phenomena, replicability serves as a fundamental check, reinforcing the robustness of scientific findings and establishing that the findings capture a modicum of generalizability beyond the observed phenomenon.

Predictive Power as the Ultimate Arbiter

Scientific research that can establish a well-documented track record of offering correct hypotheses demonstrates its capacity to extrapolate current understanding onto future discoveries. The predictive power of academic output is the ultimate arbiter in determining its scientific validity. A successful scientific endeavor reduces the occurrence of negative surprises in future discoveries, leading to a more reliable and robust body of scientific knowledge.

This is also true for purely backward-focused fields such as archaeology or evolutionary biology. Backward-focused sciences do indeed predict the future by producing and testing theory-based hypotheses about potential future discoveries building on the analysis of incomplete evidence chains. These predictions play a vital role in guiding future research, shaping the questions asked, and determining the methodologies employed in exploring the past.

Scientific Method and Reliability

The scientific method, with its emphasis on empirical testing and evidence-based reasoning, allows researchers to navigate the uncertainties of the future with rigor and discipline. By adhering to this method, science sets itself apart from other pursuits, contributing to the development of knowledge that withstands scrutiny and can be replicated by independent researchers. This requires full understanding of the individual elements of the scientific methods even for researchers who specialize in a particular aspect of it.

In particular it imposes discipline on a profession that has a tendency to evade scrutiny if it fails in its social role.

The Paradigm-Theory-Model-Hypothesis-Test Framework

The foundation of scientific inquiry is built on the paradigm-theory-model-hypothesis-test framework. Paradigms represent dominant frameworks within scientific disciplines that guide research and interpretation of data. Theories provide comprehensive explanations of natural phenomena based on evidence and are supported by models and hypotheses. Hypotheses are testable predictions derived from theories that are subjected to empirical testing through observations and experiments.

1. In the philosophy of science, a paradigm refers to a dominant framework or set of assumptions within a particular scientific discipline. It shapes the way researchers approach questions, select methodologies, and interpret data. A scientific paradigm typically includes established theories, models, and methods that guide research in the field.
2. A scientific theory is a well-substantiated and comprehensive explanation of a particular aspect of the natural world based on a body of evidence. A theory provides a framework for understanding and predicting phenomena, and it can be tested through empirical research.
3. A scientific model is a simplified representation of a system or a phenomenon used to gain insights, make predictions, or facilitate understanding. Models are often based on theoretical principles and apply formal languages, and they allow researchers to explore complex interactions and potential outcomes, and translate them into hypotheses.
4. A hypothesis is a testable and falsifiable statement that makes a specific prediction about a narrow causal relationship between variables or phenomena. Hypotheses typically focus on divergent predictions between competing theories, models, and observations, and are subject to empirical testing.
5. Empirical testing involves conducting experiments, systematic observations, or studies to gather data that can confirm or refute a hypothesis, or referee between competing hypotheses. Empirical testing always requires comparing two realities, not comparing a reality to a hypothesized trajectory.

The Effect of Failing to Predict the Future on Scientific Paradigms

A paradigm’s validity can come into question when it fails to predict future discoveries accurately or explain emerging anomalies. Accumulation of anomalies and unanticipated outcomes can and should lead to a crisis within the scientific community, prompting a reevaluation of fundamental assumptions and the need for new explanatory frameworks. This process, known as a scientific revolution, a paradigm shift, or Kuhnian collapse, can redefine the direction of research and reshape the scientific landscape.

The Social Role of Science is to Reduce the Occurrence of Costly Surprises

Good science assumes a vital social role by endeavoring to minimize the occurrence of costly surprises. Through its focus on predictive power and rigorous empirical testing, scientific inquiry provides a systematic and evidence-based approach to anticipate future events and phenomena.

This predictive capacity of science equips society with the means to make informed decisions, mitigate potential risks, and avoid expensive and detrimental surprises. By acting as a reliable compass to navigate the complexities of an uncertain future, good science serves as an invaluable tool for progress and the avoidance of unwelcome and costly outcomes.

Its role in reducing consternation fosters confidence and empowers societies to make well-informed choices for a more secure and prosperous future. Academic output can be considered scientific to the extent it can be successfully measured against this yardstick.

Predicting the future is the hallmark of scientific inquiry, distinguishing it from retrospective analyses of the past and descriptions of the present. The scientific pursuit of making accurate predictions and formulating testable hypotheses contributes to a reliable and replicable body of knowledge, enabling science to explore the unknown and advance our understanding of the natural world.

In a world of uncertainty, science remains a beacon of knowledge, shedding light on the mysteries of the future and empowering us to make informed decisions for the betterment of humanity.

Academic credentials, accolades, bibliometric scores are not performance indicators of scientific effort. The one and ultimate arbiter of science is its ability to successfully predict the future and shield us from bad surprises. Everything else is just sparkling academic self-perpetuation.

This article is based on this conversation with ChatGPT.